Re-Framing

Re-Framing As CEOs and business owners gain knowledge and experience, they find their problem-solving skills growing. We gain confidence and make decisions with less stress and greater speed. Then we encounter a particularly vexing problem where our knowledge seems inadequate. When this occurs, it often helps to re-frame the problem. Let’s look at an example. WeWork [...]

Time Discounting

Time Discounting The value of something promised in the future is less than the value of that same thing received today. This is the concept of time discounting. This concept is a corollary of compound interest which Albert Einstein called the 8th wonder of the world. $1,000 earning 5% compounded annually will grow to [...]

By | November 19th, 2019|Categories: Decision Making, Forecasting|Tags: , , |0 Comments

Loss Aversion

Loss Aversion Loss aversion is the strong and pervasive tendency to weight losses more heavily than gains of a like amount. Many studies have indicated that losses are weighted at least twice as heavily as the same gain. Nassim Nicholas Taleb points to the Stoic philosopher Seneca having noted this human trait in many of [...]

By | October 19th, 2018|Categories: Decision Making, Management|Tags: , , |0 Comments

Cognitive Dissonance

Cognitive Dissonance Cognitive dissonance can be seen at least as far back as Aesop’s fables. It occurs when our actions conflict with our beliefs, causing dissonance that we then seek to resolve. The resolution of the dissonance must come about by changing beliefs, changing actions, or changing our perception of our actions. Changing our perception [...]

Decentralize

Decentralize “How is [Berkshire] organized? I don’t think in [the] history of the world has anything Berkshire’s size [been] organized in so decentralized a fashion.” -Charlie Munger Berkshire Hathaway had revenue of $242 billion in 2017. Their headquarters staff is about 25 people. Take a look at your organization. Are you too centralized?

By | September 20th, 2018|Categories: Decision Making, Management, Strategy, Uncategorized|Tags: , , , , |0 Comments

Here’s What’s Better Than A Punch In The Mouth

Here's What's Better Than A Punch In The Mouth Our vision and goals are clear to us when we launch a new business, product, or adventure. We set out in that direction with great enthusiasm taking one step at a time looking at what is immediately in front of us. How often do we look [...]

By | April 26th, 2018|Categories: Decision Making, Lessons Learned|Tags: , , , |0 Comments

Luck

Luck When we talk about luck, be it good or bad, we are usually looking at past events. You can’t change the past, but you can learn from it. Recognize that the future is uncertain and often random. As events unfold do not dwell on your good or bad luck. Know where you want to [...]

Don’t Fool Yourself

A "difficult to overcome" characteristic of being human is our ability to fool ourselves. This article explains how often and easily this human tendency occurs. A peer group is one way to overcome this human error. https://qz.com/1231534/the-person-whos-best-at-lying-to-you-is-you/

By | March 29th, 2018|Categories: Decision Making, Management|Tags: , , , |0 Comments

Don’t Let Sunk Costs Be an Anchor on Your Business

Don’t Let Sunk Costs Be an Anchor on Your Business By Preston Sumner and Brian Rouff Preston: Brian, when you described tearing down and rebuilding your business model, the phrase that came to mind was “creative destruction.” Besides being a powerful concept from John Boyd’s OODA process, creative destruction goes against the grain of the [...]

Is Google Really That Smart? (Or Why Decision-making Based On Averages Is Dangerous)

Is Google Really That Smart? (Or Why Decision-making Based On Averages Is Dangerous) As artificial intelligence (AI) expands to fill every part of our lives, we are getting increasingly comfortable relying on it. For example, we buy a product on Amazon and get a glimpse of other products that Amazon recommends. Many of them are [...]

By | March 18th, 2018|Categories: Decision Making, Forecasting|Tags: , , , , |0 Comments