Paradox of Progress

By | December 9th, 2019|Categories: Lessons Learned, Management|Tags: , |

Paradox of Progress “There is a familiar story of a New York banker vacationing in Greece, who, from talking to a fisherman and scrutinizing the fisherman’s business, comes up for a scheme to help the fisherman make it a big business. The fisherman asked him what the benefits were; the banker answered that he [...]

Overconfidence

By | December 6th, 2019|Categories: Lessons Learned, Management|Tags: , , |

Overconfidence Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winning behavioral economist, said that if he could eliminate only one human psychological bias, it would be overconfidence. In one study of American drivers, 93% claimed to be better than the median. Obviously only 50% can be better than the median. How can you deal with this all [...]

Re-Framing

By | November 21st, 2019|Categories: Competitive Advantage, Decision Making, Management, Strategy|Tags: , , , |

Re-Framing As CEOs and business owners gain knowledge and experience, they find their problem-solving skills growing. We gain confidence and make decisions with less stress and greater speed. Then we encounter a particularly vexing problem where our knowledge seems inadequate. When this occurs, it often helps to re-frame the problem. Let’s look at an example. WeWork [...]

Time Discounting

By | November 19th, 2019|Categories: Decision Making, Forecasting|Tags: , , |

Time Discounting The value of something promised in the future is less than the value of that same thing received today. This is the concept of time discounting. This concept is a corollary of compound interest which Albert Einstein called the 8th wonder of the world. $1,000 earning 5% compounded annually will grow to [...]

Antifragility

By | November 18th, 2019|Categories: Competitive Advantage, Management|Tags: , , , |

Antifragility Antifragility is the characteristic of those things that gain from disorder and the title of a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. No word captured that concept of the opposite of fragility, so Taleb coined the obvious word “antifragile.” If the concept of gaining from disorder seems non-sensical, think about things such as vaccines, [...]

Skin in the Game

By | November 17th, 2019|Categories: Books, Management, Productivity|Tags: , , , , |

Skin in the Game “Skin in the Game” is a powerful book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Skin in the game requires exposure to not only the upside of your own actions but also the downside. That is the problem with the grant of large stock options to executives of public companies. There is no [...]

Via Negativa

By | November 16th, 2019|Categories: Uncategorized|Tags: , , |

Via Negativa Via negativa is gaining through subtraction. Less is more is another way this is expressed. Charlie Munger attributes much of Berkshire Hathaway’s success to avoiding doing stupid things rather than trying to be brilliant. Eliminate bad habits. Cease doing useless things. The bad is often much more obvious than the good…identify it [...]

Crowdsourcing – Wisdom or Madness?

By | November 16th, 2019|Categories: Uncategorized|Tags: , , , |

Crowdsourcing - Wisdom or Madness? According to Nietzsche “Madness is rare in individuals, but in groups, parties, and nations it is the rule.”  James Surowiecki’s book “The Wisdom of Crowds” has popularized the opposite concept. Free market capitalism (Adams Smith’s “invisible hand”) and democracy are often used as examples of the wisdom of crowds [...]

It’s Lonely at the Top

By | January 24th, 2019|Categories: Management, Process, Productivity|Tags: , , , , |

It's Lonely at the Top Preston: CEOs often feel very lonely. Although that may surprise many who have never been a CEO or business owner, it won’t surprise those who have. Many people clamor for time with the CEO. In addition to employees seeking the CEO’s time, there are customers, prospects and suppliers to meet [...]